Academic discipline: Systems engineering, technology management, complexity science, data science

Methods: Graph theory, citation networks, tech mining, machine learning, roadmapping

Research question: Is it possible to predict technological emergence?

Description: While the complexity of technological emergence forbids its prediction, the study of innovation networks through the use of graph theory mathematics open opportunities to defining technological certainty. The correlation of many these network variables over many technological datasets might allow reliable complex system models that can provide probabilistic forecasting of technological emergence. These models can be combined with other strategic foresight technique to inform prospective RD&D resource allocation.

Implications: The ability to find reliable signals, if not forecast, technological emergence would increase preparedness in innovation policy. Beyond policy, effective technological emergence signals would also revolutionize RD&D investment decisions and in venture capitals.