An investigation into the treatment of risk and uncertainty in roadmapping

Background and aim

Uncertainty and risk are important elements of any strategic initiative, and roadmapping is expected to deliver as one of its main benefits, the identification, resolution and communication of uncertainties and risks within the strategic issue it is applied for. However, there appears to be a lack of explicit guidance on how this benefit is achieved.


This work aims to understand, and make explicit, risk analyses and communication in the roadmapping approach. The investigation is being carried out in the context of its application to foresight, an approach receiving increasing attention due to its crucial position in fostering sustainable innovation and strategy.


Expected deliverables

Results are expected to serve the dual purpose of strengthening the theoretical base of roadmapping and providing practical guidance on how to effectively deal with uncertainty and risk in the course of their roadmapping exercises. Specific outputs of this research include:

  • The identification of factors that affect risk perception and management in the roadmapping process and suggestions on how they can be controlled appropriately.
  • Provision of practical guidance on how risk and uncertainty can be handled effectively during the roadmapping process, including suggestions (based on empirical evidence) of risk management and foresight tools that will be useful for achieving this.
  • A module designed for roadmapping practitioners, which would include and indicate risk management tools appropriate for different forms of roadmapping exercises (e.g. fast-paced workshop-based formats and more detailed (in-depth) roadmapping processes).



Imoh Michael ILEVBARE E:

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