From Sputnik to Starship: Estimating the learning curve of space launch technology

Alessio Terzi, Bennett School of Public Policy

Seminar organised by the Centre for Science, Technology and Innovation Policy

Date & time: 11:15-12:30, 28 January 2026

Venue: Seminar Room 2, Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge

Abstract: Space launch costs have fallen dramatically over the past six decades, opening new economic and scientific frontiers. Yet precise, long-term estimates of these cost reductions remain sparse, and the underlying rate of technological learning is poorly understood. We introduce the largest standardised dataset of rocket launches to date, covering more than 4,000 launches (1960 to 2024) across ten spacefaring geographical entities and show that the average cost of sending a kilogram to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) has dropped from 87,023 USD in 1960 to 3,841 USD in 2024. We leverage our empirical model to produce out-of-sample projections under a set of scenario-based and data-driven approaches. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of continued research and policy focus on launch technology, given that breakthroughs in cost reduction could accelerate the evolution of the space economy and its diverse near-term applications.

Biography: Alessio Terzi is an economist working at the intersection of academia, think-tanks, and policy. He is Assistant Professor at the Bennett School of Public Policy, Cambridge, where he also directs the MPhil in Public Policy, and is an Adjunct Professor in Economics at Sciences Po. Over more than five years, he was an Economist at the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission, where he worked on competitiveness, industrial policy, space economics, and green growth. Prior to that, he was a Fellow at Bruegel, the leading European economic think-tank, and a Fulbright Scholar at the John F. Kennedy School of Government of Harvard University. He has work experience from the European Central Bank and BMI Research (Fitch Ratings).