Centre for Technology Management

Diversity and Uniformity in the Evolution of Early Information and Communication Technologies

Garnsey, E., Heffernan, P. and Ford, S. is Hunt, Rick Mitchell, Rob Phaal, David Probert

Centre for Technology Management, Institute for Manufacturing, Engineering Department, University of Cambridge, UK

Abstract

The creation of novelty and its subsequent retention or elimination by evolutionary mechanisms is a central theme in complexity studies. By examining the evolution of three information and communication technologies, this paper explores linkages between variety generation, selection and propagation. Tensions are identified between the benefits of variety to meet diverse user needs and the value of standardization to facilitate exchange. In ICT industries, the usefulness of interactive products and service increases with numbers of users. The benefits of interoperability, the facilitation of complementary technologies around a standard and user switching costs are among network externalities. These contribute to the emergence of dominant designs and standard protocols, which, via the way expectations shape action, reduce the variety of enabling or platform technologies but increase complementary product and process innovations. To understand the sources and impact of innovation, an analysis of the co-evolution of complementary technologies is needed. This explains how incremental innovations can result in radical transformation through new combinations of technology when complementarities support co-evolution. On the other hand, co-evolutionary processes that operate as technologies mature and industries consolidate lead to expectations that lock in standardising processes of selection and propagation. Advances in science and technology that are insulated from the standardising effects of short term market pressures are a continuing source of variety, which is further stimulated by open technology standards and enabling conditions for entrepreneurial entrants.